The Warriors Improbable Comeback

YEARTEAMOPPONENTROUNDGAMEQTRODDS Win probability calculated at the end of each quarter or overtime, based on FiveThirtyEight’s Elo ratingsSource: basketball-reference.com 41994RocketsSuns2312.4 32000LakersTrail Blazers3732.0 51995RocketsSuns2513.5 As the Oklahoma City Thunder learned Monday night, it’s really tough to eliminate a defending NBA champion. After opening up a 3-1 series lead in the Western Conference finals, the Thunder were poised to knock the Golden State Warriors out for good — they led for almost the entirety of Game 6 before collapsing down the stretch, and they took a 6-point lead into the second half of Game 7. None of that mattered; the finishing blow was always just outside of OKC’s reach.But, man, did the Thunder come close. In fact, according to our quarter-by-quarter analysis of seven-game playoff series since 1984,1The year the NBA playoffs expanded to 16 teams. the Thunder — with a peak win probability of 95.8 percent going into the fourth quarter of Game 6 — came the seventh-closest to a series victory of any modern team that went on to lose. And in the conference finals, only the Portland Trail Blazers’ infamous collapse against the Los Angeles Lakers in 2000 was more unlikely.(The least likely comeback overall? Last year’s Houston Rockets, who went down three games to one against the Clippers before storming back to win three straight games — just like this year’s Warriors team.) 82001BucksHornets2624.7 LOWEST WIN PROBABILITY MOMENT But the Dubs pulled out a dramatic win in Game 6. Their reward: a Game 7 at home that had them as 66 percent favorites to win the series.2It’s worth noting that the betting markets (as measured by Inpredictable’s in-game odds) were never quite as bullish on OKC’s upset chances as the statistical models were. Perhaps the markets were factoring in the invisible aura of Golden State’s championship experience?The rest is history. The defending champions are returning to the Finals, in a rematch against LeBron and the Cavs.Check out our NBA Finals predictions. 102005MavericksRockets1337.5 Greatest best-of-seven NBA playoff series comebacks 91997HeatKnicks2616.6 12015RocketsClippers2630.3% 72016WarriorsThunder3634.2 Here’s how we crunched those numbers: First, we gathered quarter-by-quarter line score data for every NBA playoff game since ’84 and used Wayne Winston’s method of converting point margins to win probabilities to generate a win expectancy number for each team after every quarter. (Given the data we were working with, we couldn’t go deeper to, say, the play-by-play level to find the most dire circumstances within a quarter.) We then plugged those game-level probabilities into the formulae for winning a series, which allowed us to incorporate both the results of games already played and the expected outcomes of future games based on Elo.In terms of series win probability, the Warriors rode a wild roller coaster against the Thunder. At the start, our Elo-based projections gave them a 70 percent chance to win the series. However, by the end of Game 4, that had dropped to just 17.5 percent. A solid Game 5 win helped their odds, but by Game 6 the Thunder had them on the ropes. Entering the fourth quarter of that game, the Warriors stood only a 4.3 percent chance of winning the series. 22000KnicksHeat2621.8 62013HeatSpurs4634.2 read more

Rangers showed character during win over Hearts – Grezda

first_imgRangers midfielder Eros Grezda insists the team showed character during their 2-1 win over Hearts despite being one man down for more than 20 minutes.Rangers fell behind to an early own goal from defender Gareth McAuley but scored twice before half-time through Connor Goldson and Alfredo Morelos.Steven Gerrard’s men had to play the last 20 minutes of the game with ten men after Scott Arfield saw red for a late challenge on keeper Zdenek Zlamal.But Grezda reckons the team’s determination showed through as they battled to earn an important victory.He said, according to Evening Times: “It was a really hard game. The guys never lost belief after going 1-0 down and we came back fast. We are very happy.”Rangers is still behind Celtic: John Hartson Manuel R. Medina – September 3, 2019 According to the former Celtic player, there’s still a massive gap between his ex-club and Rangers in the Scottish Premier League.“It’s a long way to the end [of the season] but for the moment we have a lot of games and we just have to go one by one.”“We have to give maximum effort in every game and go for the win. But the end is so far.”“As I said we go for every win so we will see what will happen.”“That’s football. We lacked a bit in the first 20 minutes but after they scored we showed our best face and scored two goals and that decided it.”“We played with less players in the second half but I’m really proud of the guys that they made it.”last_img read more

43 Afghan soldiers killed in military base suicide attack

first_imgMap of Afghanistan locating a deadly suicide attack on military base in Kandahar Thursday. AFPAt least 43 Afghan soldiers were killed in a Taliban-claimed suicide attack on a military base in southern Afghanistan on Thursday, officials said, the third assault on a security installation this week.Just two soldiers are known to have survived unscathed after the attack on the base in the Chashmo area of Maiwand district in Kandahar province, the defence ministry said in a statement, adding that nine soldiers were wounded and six unaccounted for.Defence ministry spokesman Dawlat Waziri told AFP the attackers detonated at least one explosive-packed Humvee vehicle and razed the compound in the early morning assault.“We think the militants used an explosive-packed Humvee vehicle to detonate the gate of the base and we are looking to see if there was more than one,” Waziri said.“Unfortunately there is nothing left inside the camp. They have burned down everything they found inside.”The Taliban claimed the ambush in a message to journalists which said all 60 security personnel on the base were killed.Ten insurgents died, the ministry said.“We have sent a delegation to assess the situation. The base is under ANA (Afghan National Army) control,” Waziri added.It was the third suicide and gun attack on a security installation this week and takes the total death toll to more than 120, including soldiers, police and civilians.In each assault the Taliban used a Humvee vehicle as a bomb to blast their way into their targets.On Tuesday two attacks in southeast Afghanistan killed 80 people and wounded nearly 300 in the bloodiest day in the war-torn country in almost five months.The deadliest of Tuesday’s assaults was on a police compound in the city of Gardez in Paktia province where Taliban militants disguised as police detonated three explosive-packed vehicles—including a truck and a Humvee—that cleared the way for 11 gunmen to enter.At least 60 people, including Paktia police chief Toryalai Abdyani and civilians waiting to collect documents, were killed in the blasts and ensuing battle that lasted around five hours, health officials said, with more than 230 wounded.In the second attack in the neighbouring province of Ghazni, some 100 kilometres west of Gardez, 20 people, including 15 members of the security forces and five civilians died and 46 were wounded, officials said.last_img read more

Tonight AFROs First Edition Friday Jan 23

first_imgListen at WEAA Live Stream: http://amber.streamguys.com.4020/live.m3uA roundup of this week’s top news stories taken directly from the pages of the AFRO American Newspaper with AFRO reporter Roberto Alejandro, who wrote about the dismissal of the Phylicia Barnes murder case, as well as the Maryland General Assembly. Plus, we’ll focus on Baltimore City Hall politics with Fox 45 investigative producer Stephen Janis and Taya Graham, co-editor of, “You Can’t Stop Murder: Truths About Policing in Baltimore and Beyond.” It’s all coming up this evening on AFRO’s First Edition with Sean Yoes.last_img

Netflix Raises 22 Billion Through JunkBond Offering

first_imgThe bond offering marks the seventh time in four years that Netflix is raising $1 billion or more through debt. With that latest debt deal, its long-term debt will climb to around $12.5 billion.Moody’s Investor Service assigned a “Ba3” junk-bond rating to the Netflix new debt offering, indicating a non-investment grade “speculative” security. The firm maintained a “stable” outlook on the company, “which reflects our expectation that Netflix’s operating results will improve gradually and the company will de-lever through revenue, EBITDA and margin growth,” Moody’s said in announcing the rating Monday.“Pro forma for this debt issuance, Netflix’s gross leverage will be 7.5x (including Moody’s adjustments) for the last twelve months ended March 31, 2019,” the firm said in the rating assignment. However, it expects Netflix’s gross leverage will fall to below 5.5x by the end of 2019 and below 5.0x by the end of 2020. Gross leverage refers to a company’s gross debt as a ratio of annual EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization).Moody’s projected that the company has the ability to reach cash-flow breakeven by 2023, as it increases total margins to the low- to mid-20% range. “We believe the company’s strategy to procure its own content has positive long-term implications as it builds its owned library assets as compared to pure licensing of content which has supply considerations,” the firm said.Netflix, in its first-quarter 2019 letter to shareholders, said it had “no change to our plan to use the high-yield market to finance our cash needs” — signaling its intention of to raise more debt. Netflix’s cash burn has accelerated: Free cash flow for the first quarter of 2019 was -$460 million (compared with -$287 million in the year-earlier quarter). The company now expects its free cash flow deficit for the full-year 2019 to be “modestly higher” than it previously guided, to -$3.5 billion. It had previously told investors it was expecting negative free cash flow of $3.0 billion for 2019; Netflix says it still expects free cash flow to improve starting in 2020. ‘Orange Is the New Black’ Creator Jenji Kohan and Star Uzo Aduba Bid Farewell What’s Coming to Netflix in September 2019 The company last raised $2 billion in junk bonds in October 2018. So far, it hasn’t paid down any significant amount of the long-term debt it has accrued. It reported $135.5 million in interest expense for the first quarter of 2019 (3% of revenue) up 67% from $81.2 million a year prior (2.2% of revenue). Popular on Variety center_img Related Netflix just went deeper into hock: The company announced the pricing of unsecured bonds in a transaction raising around $2.2 billion, giving it more cash to invest in content, real estate and infrastructure.The streamer had said Tuesday that it planned to raise $2 billion through a new debt offering, bringing its long-term debt to more than $12 billion.On Wednesday, Netflix announced that the total bond offering would be worth about $2.24 billion. That includes €1.2 billion ($1.34 billion) in 3.875% senior notes due 2029 and $900 million of its 5.375% senior notes due 2029. The company said it expects to close the sale on April 29, 2019.Netflix, in its boilerplate text announcing the bond sale said, said it plans to use the cash for general “corporate purposes, which may include content acquisitions, production and development, capital expenditures, investments, working capital and potential acquisitions and strategic transactions.” ×Actors Reveal Their Favorite Disney PrincessesSeveral actors, like Daisy Ridley, Awkwafina, Jeff Goldblum and Gina Rodriguez, reveal their favorite Disney princesses. Rapunzel, Mulan, Ariel,Tiana, Sleeping Beauty and Jasmine all got some love from the Disney stars.More VideosVolume 0%Press shift question mark to access a list of keyboard shortcutsKeyboard Shortcutsplay/pauseincrease volumedecrease volumeseek forwardsseek backwardstoggle captionstoggle fullscreenmute/unmuteseek to %SPACE↑↓→←cfm0-9Next UpJennifer Lopez Shares How She Became a Mogul04:350.5x1x1.25×1.5x2xLive00:0002:1502:15last_img read more