The Warriors Improbable Comeback

YEARTEAMOPPONENTROUNDGAMEQTRODDS Win probability calculated at the end of each quarter or overtime, based on FiveThirtyEight’s Elo ratingsSource: basketball-reference.com 41994RocketsSuns2312.4 32000LakersTrail Blazers3732.0 51995RocketsSuns2513.5 As the Oklahoma City Thunder learned Monday night, it’s really tough to eliminate a defending NBA champion. After opening up a 3-1 series lead in the Western Conference finals, the Thunder were poised to knock the Golden State Warriors out for good — they led for almost the entirety of Game 6 before collapsing down the stretch, and they took a 6-point lead into the second half of Game 7. None of that mattered; the finishing blow was always just outside of OKC’s reach.But, man, did the Thunder come close. In fact, according to our quarter-by-quarter analysis of seven-game playoff series since 1984,1The year the NBA playoffs expanded to 16 teams. the Thunder — with a peak win probability of 95.8 percent going into the fourth quarter of Game 6 — came the seventh-closest to a series victory of any modern team that went on to lose. And in the conference finals, only the Portland Trail Blazers’ infamous collapse against the Los Angeles Lakers in 2000 was more unlikely.(The least likely comeback overall? Last year’s Houston Rockets, who went down three games to one against the Clippers before storming back to win three straight games — just like this year’s Warriors team.) 82001BucksHornets2624.7 LOWEST WIN PROBABILITY MOMENT But the Dubs pulled out a dramatic win in Game 6. Their reward: a Game 7 at home that had them as 66 percent favorites to win the series.2It’s worth noting that the betting markets (as measured by Inpredictable’s in-game odds) were never quite as bullish on OKC’s upset chances as the statistical models were. Perhaps the markets were factoring in the invisible aura of Golden State’s championship experience?The rest is history. The defending champions are returning to the Finals, in a rematch against LeBron and the Cavs.Check out our NBA Finals predictions. 102005MavericksRockets1337.5 Greatest best-of-seven NBA playoff series comebacks 91997HeatKnicks2616.6 12015RocketsClippers2630.3% 72016WarriorsThunder3634.2 Here’s how we crunched those numbers: First, we gathered quarter-by-quarter line score data for every NBA playoff game since ’84 and used Wayne Winston’s method of converting point margins to win probabilities to generate a win expectancy number for each team after every quarter. (Given the data we were working with, we couldn’t go deeper to, say, the play-by-play level to find the most dire circumstances within a quarter.) We then plugged those game-level probabilities into the formulae for winning a series, which allowed us to incorporate both the results of games already played and the expected outcomes of future games based on Elo.In terms of series win probability, the Warriors rode a wild roller coaster against the Thunder. At the start, our Elo-based projections gave them a 70 percent chance to win the series. However, by the end of Game 4, that had dropped to just 17.5 percent. A solid Game 5 win helped their odds, but by Game 6 the Thunder had them on the ropes. Entering the fourth quarter of that game, the Warriors stood only a 4.3 percent chance of winning the series. 22000KnicksHeat2621.8 62013HeatSpurs4634.2 read more

Rakitic feels Barca deserved a win against Valencia

first_imgBarcelona midfielder Ivan Rakitic feels his side played well enough to secure a win against Valencia at the Camp Nou, despite the game ending in a stalemate.The 2-2 draw against Marcelino’s men ended the club’s eight-game winning streak in the League and could only stretch their lead to six points above Atletico Madrid.Two goals for Lionel Messi helped Barcelona to fight back, after falling 2-0 behind after 35 minutes, but the Croatian international believes they had the chances to collect all three points.⌛️FULL-TIME: There’s the whistle! Leo Messi scores twice as Barça battle back from 2-0, first-half deficit to earn a tie!FT: Barça 2 – 2 Valencia⚽️ #Messi 39′ (p.), 64′ / Gameiro 24′ , Parejo 32′ (p.)🔵🔴 #BarçaValencia pic.twitter.com/GyuzSYUOmC— FC Barcelona (@FCBarcelona) February 2, 2019“We surely deserved to win. We played a much better game than Valencia. He revealed in a quote cited on Football Espana.Sergio Ramos, Real MadridZidane reveals Sergio Ramos injury concern for Real Madrid Andrew Smyth – September 14, 2019 Zinedine Zidane has put Sergio Ramos’ availability for Real Madrid’s trip to Sevilla next weekend in doubt after withdrawing him against Levante.“Maybe in the first half we did not play that well, but in the second half we dominated, and at times we were almost playing handball around their area.“But in the end, we came up short, and it is not easy to play against a counter-attacking team like Valencia, particularly after a hard game in midweek as we had against Sevilla.”Atletico Madrid will be hoping to reduce the gap to three points when they face Real Betis on Sunday.Real Madrid could also be in the mix for the title if they maintain a winning form for the rest of the campaign.Barcelona host Real Madrid in the Copa del Rey semi-final on Wednesday night, and Messi and defender Gerard Pique are doubtful after picking up injuries in the Valencia tie.🗣 @ivanrakitic 🗣 Ernesto Valverde⚽️ #BarçaValencia pic.twitter.com/CGE4z49wqy— FC Barcelona (@FCBarcelona) February 2, 2019last_img read more

Supervisors say farewell to outgoing board members Horn Roberts

first_img KUSI Newsroom, KUSI Newsroom Posted: December 12, 2018 Supervisors say farewell to outgoing board members Horn, Roberts December 12, 2018 SAN DIEGO (KUSI) – Members of the San Diego County Board of Supervisors Wednesday saluted two termed-out colleagues, Bill Horn and Ron Roberts, for their decades of leadership in local government.Horn and Roberts offered brief reflections on their public service and received a standing ovation from their colleagues during a meeting of the board at the County Administration Center.A former Marine and business owner who served on the Escondido Union High School District board in the early 1990s, Horn was first elected as a county supervisor in 1994 for District 5, an area that spans roughly 1,800 square miles from the Pacific Ocean to Imperial County.Roberts, an architect and former San Diego councilman, was elected to the board in 1994 to represent District 4, which encompasses dozens of neighborhoods, mostly within that city’s boundaries.Former San Marcos Mayor Jim Desmond won Horn’s seat last month, while former state Assemblyman Nathan Fletcher was elected to replace Roberts.During his time on the board, Horn told his colleagues that he “tried to be a champion for North County,” adding that he hoped “the voters look at it that way.”Horn said the county is in good financial shape because board members had managed to agree on major issues and served their constituents well.When he and Roberts joined the legislative body, Horn recalled, they were told the county needed to file for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. Instead, its leaders froze budgets, paid down bonds and sold off trash service.Along with his staff and other county departments, Horn thanked first responders for their efforts, especially during major wildfires.Roberts, for his part, said he would not trade his 31 years in government for anything. He credited numerous staff members for putting the county on a stable course.“I thank all of you collectively for your friendship, support and camaraderie,” Roberts said.He also praised citizens and community groups for their efforts on numerous projects, asserting that “they’re why we do this work.”Roberts cited Veterans’ Village on Pacific Highway, the county operations center in Kearny Mesa, several sporting facilities, and Waterfront Park on Harbor Drive as major achievements in which he took part. He called the latter civic amenity “a landmark in San Diego — you can travel all over and won’t find anything like it.”Board Chairwoman Kristin Gaspar described the two termed-out politicos’ final remarks as “a long goodbye.”Supervisor Greg Cox called the departure of Horn and Roberts the end of an era. He credited Roberts for being a fierce advocate of foster children who “never stopped thinking about ways to make San Diego a better place to live.”“Without Ron, there would have been no Waterfront Park,” Cox said. “Ron (also) was the driving force behind the county operations center.”As for Horn, whose tenure at times could be controversial, Cox said the ex-Marine deserves credit for strong support of veterans and, outside the county purview, humanitarian work in Uganda.“There’s a side of Bill that most people aren’t aware of,” Cox said. “His gruff exterior hides the fact that he cares about people.”Supervisor Dianne Jacob opined that Horn and Roberts would leave lasting legacies.“There are times we have fought in public, but in the end, we’re like family,” she said.Jacob lauded the two men’s efforts to improve public safety and secure better pay for law enforcement personnel. She added that they were instrumental in transformed the county from near-insolvency in the 1990s to a regional government that boasts a “triple A” credit rating.County Chief Administrative Officer Helen Robbins-Meyer said Horn and Roberts “always treated staff as if it’s one team working together.” As a parting gift, she presented them with a book documenting their successes on county programs and projects. Categories: Local San Diego News, Politics FacebookTwitterlast_img read more